Friday, July 30, 2010
Possibly a return to the blog?
Gauging interest to see whether doing this again would be worth while. I am rather curious as to whether this would ever take off again.
Sunday, November 9, 2008
State Of The Blog
I have received a number of comments and emails regarding what I am doing with the blog. People have asked whether I am done with it or if I am doing something else. Well to be honest it all has to do with my schedule. When I first started the blog I had much more free time to research games and then post the audio breakdowns. Right now my schedule is much more busy than it was this time last year. I wish I did have the time to invest in running the blog like I did last year, but as of right now I don't. Having said all that, I am not quitting with the blog, I am just waiting until I have more time to invest with it. I thoroughly enjoyed what the blog was last season, and all the conversations that we had. I hope that it can get there again. Believe me I wish that this blog was my full time job, but it isn't and unfortunately I need to spend more time working so I can pay the bills. I hope that you are all having successful seasons, and I wish you guys the best of luck in the future. I will occasionally make posts when I have the time to, so make sure to check back in from time to time.
Rick
Rick
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Auburn @ West Virginia
This game is like a coin flip for me. I could see it playing out a few different ways, where either team could easily cover. However, something that really caught my eye was the over/under. 38 is the O/U, which seems super low for a Thursday night game that includes a Big East team. But you know what, I like the under here. I don't love it, but I like it. Auburn has been a disaster on offense, unable to score points the way they should be able to with the talent on that team. They do still have a good defense though, and have been able to hold other teams to a reasonable amount of points. For West Virgina, their defense is still pretty good, but it will be helped by Auburn's poor offense. West Virginia also isn't as potent on offense as they were last year. Add in that Auburn's defensive coordinator was Pitt's D coordinator last year, who held WVU to 183 total yards last year, and I think it is a recipe for a low scoring game. Pray for no OT.
Monday, October 20, 2008
MNF
Denver @ New England
This game puts both teams in situations that they really haven't faced this year. Denver is actually going to play a decent team on the road. Their only two road games this year were a blowout of Oakland and a loss to KC. The Pats on the other hand are only playing their 3rd home game, with a win over KC and an embarrassing loss to the Dolphins. Both teams are coming off losses to pretty good teams. I do think history may tell us a little bit though about the Pats. Earlier this season, the Cardinals played @ Washington and then spent the following week on the east coast before they went out and absolutely played terrible against the Jets. When the Cards came back home the following week, they beat a pretty Bills team. This is similar to the Pats situation tonight. They played in San Francisco, stayed on the west coast before they played the Chargers in which they were beaten handily, and now the come home to play a pretty good Broncos team. I do believe that the Pats have a little extra motivation also, as the last time they played in front of the home fans they were embarrassed by Ronnie Brown. I am sure that is in the back of their heads and they are going to want to send a message to the fans during prime time.
If we match up offenses verse defenses, both teams should be able to run the ball with reasonable success. There is a reason that I am favoring the Pats here though. The Broncos have showed over the past couple of weeks that physical defenses give them some problems. I feel the Pats have a physical defense. The key will be can the Pats protect Cassell. They have given up a bunch of sacks, but Denver only has 10 sacks on the year. I believe at home, that the Pats will be able to run the ball to set up the pass, and when they pass they will be able to protect Cassell. I am taking the Pats -3 at home.
This game puts both teams in situations that they really haven't faced this year. Denver is actually going to play a decent team on the road. Their only two road games this year were a blowout of Oakland and a loss to KC. The Pats on the other hand are only playing their 3rd home game, with a win over KC and an embarrassing loss to the Dolphins. Both teams are coming off losses to pretty good teams. I do think history may tell us a little bit though about the Pats. Earlier this season, the Cardinals played @ Washington and then spent the following week on the east coast before they went out and absolutely played terrible against the Jets. When the Cards came back home the following week, they beat a pretty Bills team. This is similar to the Pats situation tonight. They played in San Francisco, stayed on the west coast before they played the Chargers in which they were beaten handily, and now the come home to play a pretty good Broncos team. I do believe that the Pats have a little extra motivation also, as the last time they played in front of the home fans they were embarrassed by Ronnie Brown. I am sure that is in the back of their heads and they are going to want to send a message to the fans during prime time.
If we match up offenses verse defenses, both teams should be able to run the ball with reasonable success. There is a reason that I am favoring the Pats here though. The Broncos have showed over the past couple of weeks that physical defenses give them some problems. I feel the Pats have a physical defense. The key will be can the Pats protect Cassell. They have given up a bunch of sacks, but Denver only has 10 sacks on the year. I believe at home, that the Pats will be able to run the ball to set up the pass, and when they pass they will be able to protect Cassell. I am taking the Pats -3 at home.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Clemson @ Wake Forest
First things first, I would say do your due diligence and check the weather before the game. Tuesday the report for the FAU/Troy game talked about wind and rain. The game came and there was no rain. Well showers are in the forecast for this one, so lets see if the weather people can get it right tonight.
Clemson is finally where they can thrive. Talk about a team/coach that just hasn't been able to handle the pressure/expectations. Well suffice to say, the expectations aren't there anymore having lost to a poor Maryland team. That Alabama loss doesn't look so bad now, but regardless, the Tigers haven't looked good at all this year. But now since there are no more expectations, they should be right back in their comfort zone. They also are coming off a bye week.
Wake Forest just got beat by a poor Navy team. This loss was totally unacceptable. 6 turnovers is how you lose games like that. Skinner usually does an excellent job at protecting the ball, but it seems like when he is off, he is really off. Cullen Harper, the Clemson QB, has also looked like a shell of himself compared to last year. His TD to INT ratio is unacceptable with the talent he has on that offense.
OK, lets address what we know for sure. Clemson has 2 talented running backs, and Wake just gave up almost 300 yards on the ground to a Navy team, a team that Wake knows all they are going to try and do is run the ball. Now defending the triple option isn't easy, but everyone knows Navy is going to run the ball, and Wake gave up a ton of yards on the ground. That looks like a plus for the Clemson Tigers. Factor in that there could be rain in the forecast, which could affect the passing game, that could be another advantage to Clemson.
Special teams for both these teams are solid, although Clemson gets the edge in the return game.
I think we know this game is going to come down to turnovers. I don't think one of these teams is going to steamroll the other without getting turnovers. It is obvious that whoever wins the turnover battle usually wins the game, and I think tonight's game is no different. I will be taking Clemson because I think they match up well against Wake Forest. I am just hoping for minimal turnovers, at least from the Clemson side.
Clemson is finally where they can thrive. Talk about a team/coach that just hasn't been able to handle the pressure/expectations. Well suffice to say, the expectations aren't there anymore having lost to a poor Maryland team. That Alabama loss doesn't look so bad now, but regardless, the Tigers haven't looked good at all this year. But now since there are no more expectations, they should be right back in their comfort zone. They also are coming off a bye week.
Wake Forest just got beat by a poor Navy team. This loss was totally unacceptable. 6 turnovers is how you lose games like that. Skinner usually does an excellent job at protecting the ball, but it seems like when he is off, he is really off. Cullen Harper, the Clemson QB, has also looked like a shell of himself compared to last year. His TD to INT ratio is unacceptable with the talent he has on that offense.
OK, lets address what we know for sure. Clemson has 2 talented running backs, and Wake just gave up almost 300 yards on the ground to a Navy team, a team that Wake knows all they are going to try and do is run the ball. Now defending the triple option isn't easy, but everyone knows Navy is going to run the ball, and Wake gave up a ton of yards on the ground. That looks like a plus for the Clemson Tigers. Factor in that there could be rain in the forecast, which could affect the passing game, that could be another advantage to Clemson.
Special teams for both these teams are solid, although Clemson gets the edge in the return game.
I think we know this game is going to come down to turnovers. I don't think one of these teams is going to steamroll the other without getting turnovers. It is obvious that whoever wins the turnover battle usually wins the game, and I think tonight's game is no different. I will be taking Clemson because I think they match up well against Wake Forest. I am just hoping for minimal turnovers, at least from the Clemson side.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Troy @ FAU update
The weather at the game has changed drastically. Plus something smells fishy about this. I am going to fade the public here and take the points. I may have out thought myself, but my gut is screaming something isn't right with this line.
Troy @ FAU
This is a very interesting game with many factors that could dictate the outcome. First off, there are thunderstorms and showers all day, scheduled through game time. The wind is estimated at 10-15 mph, not brutal, but enough to effect the passing games somewhat. I would really like to see the field conditions and the wind before the game starts. Remember, FAU played Michigan State in a rain storm and they were totally ineffective. I want to see if the conditions will be similar to that game.
What makes this game so interesting is the way that these teams have played so far this season. Troy has looked much better than FAU, and they lost most of their skilled players. The fact that they return their entire offensive line makes up for some of that, but naturally we would expect a huge drop off. That hasn't really happened, they beat the teams they were supposed to and got beat by BCS teams they were supposed to lose to. FAU on the other hand has been confusing. They return their skill players, including Rusty Smith, from an offense last year that was very potent. The problem is that they have yet to get on track this season. 13 points against Middle Tennessee State is totally unacceptable. In addition, they way the lost that game may have been overwhelming, considering the way they have played so far this year. In a rain storm, I find it hard to believe that FAU will finally get the offense in rhythm.
There is a revenge factor for Troy in this game. Last year, FAU went to Troy as a 16 point underdog and walked away with the outright win. Troy lost their stud QB from last year, but his replacement this year has similar talents. He is a dual threat to both run and pass, and in a game where the passing game may be neutralized because of the weather, I think that is a huge advantage to Troy.
My book has Troy as a 3.5 point favorite, and I hate the hook here. This is why seeing the weather conditions is so important. If the conditions are a nightmare, which could lead to a low scoring game, that hook is very important. If anyone lives in the area, please let us know if I am making a bigger deal about the weather than needs to be made.
Check back before the game, I will make a pick, but I want to see if I can find out some more information.
What makes this game so interesting is the way that these teams have played so far this season. Troy has looked much better than FAU, and they lost most of their skilled players. The fact that they return their entire offensive line makes up for some of that, but naturally we would expect a huge drop off. That hasn't really happened, they beat the teams they were supposed to and got beat by BCS teams they were supposed to lose to. FAU on the other hand has been confusing. They return their skill players, including Rusty Smith, from an offense last year that was very potent. The problem is that they have yet to get on track this season. 13 points against Middle Tennessee State is totally unacceptable. In addition, they way the lost that game may have been overwhelming, considering the way they have played so far this year. In a rain storm, I find it hard to believe that FAU will finally get the offense in rhythm.
There is a revenge factor for Troy in this game. Last year, FAU went to Troy as a 16 point underdog and walked away with the outright win. Troy lost their stud QB from last year, but his replacement this year has similar talents. He is a dual threat to both run and pass, and in a game where the passing game may be neutralized because of the weather, I think that is a huge advantage to Troy.
My book has Troy as a 3.5 point favorite, and I hate the hook here. This is why seeing the weather conditions is so important. If the conditions are a nightmare, which could lead to a low scoring game, that hook is very important. If anyone lives in the area, please let us know if I am making a bigger deal about the weather than needs to be made.
Check back before the game, I will make a pick, but I want to see if I can find out some more information.
Sunday, October 5, 2008
NFL
I think this weekend is a Contender or Pretender weekend for some teams. I am liking teams who have been good teams in the past years, but have been struggling to open the year.
Colts @ Texans
The Colts need to get their act together. 1-2 is a bad start, but worse then that, they have looked absolutely terrible on offense, which is unacceptable for this team. A bye week is always a good recipe to help get a team back on track. It also helps that Houston isn't a good team and their QB play has been awful. Both these teams have played run heavy teams, thus the inflation in the defensive rush statistics, but I think Addai can get rolling against the Texans here. I have to pay -125 for the Colts @ -3, but I am all over that.
Patriots @ 49ers
The Pats are also a team that has something to prove. They had their asses handed to them 2 weeks ago against the Dolphins. Now they are coming off a bye week to play an overinflated 49ers team. If the Pats lose here, I think it is clear that they are done, I don't think Belichick lets that happen. -3 for the Pats costs -120 @ my book.
Falcons @ Packers
Rodgers is doubtful, which has this game as a giant wildcard when it comes to the line. Coin flip with 2 rookie QBs starting. If Rodgers doesn't play, this is an instant under play for me. I think both coaches will be doing all they can to protect their QBs from huge mistakes. Conservative playcalling breeds lots of punts. Atlanta can't score touchdowns on the road, well at least they haven't yet. I think this will either be way under, or way over if the QBs turn the ball over and create short fields. I think it is more likely that they go way under.
Weak Leans
Titans @ Ravens: I don't know why I can't pull the trigger on the Titans here, I think they are primed for a poor game.
Chargers @ Dolphins: I lean toward the Chargers minus the points. What keeps me off them is that the Dolphins are comming off a bye week, and the Chargers are coming off a rivalry game against the Raiders, which they could have lost.
Cheifs @ Panthers: I liked the Cheifs at home getting a bunch of points against a division opponent, I don't like them on the road getting less than 10, especially with the QBs they have on that roster.
Redskins @ Eagles: The Skins come off a huge win against the Cowboys, and the Eagles come off a tough, primetime loss against the Bears. The toughest division in the NFL has me thinking always take the points if the spread is more than 3, but I could flip a coin on this game.
Bears @ Lions: I would play against the Lions until they prove they can cover. Watch, it will probably be this week.
Seahawks @ Giants: The Seahawks get their 2 top receivers back, while the Giants lose theirs. Give me the points, even though I hate betting on Seattle when they travel to the east coast.
Bucs @ Broncos: Coin flip for me, especially with that hook. I really can't see how this game will play out in my head. Are the Broncos and Cutler for real? We should learn a lot when they face a good Bucs defense.
Bills @ Cardinals: Remember last year how the Lions started off fast last year, then they went and lost to a bad Arizona team, and the betting public got killed? Sportsbook.com has 81% of the public on the Bills, I think the same thing happens here.
Bengals @ Cowboys: I cannot give an NFL team 16 points, I just can't do it. That is why you never saw me on New England last year with those huge spreads. I missed a bunch of wins early last year, but I saved myself a bunch of losses late last year.
Steelers @ Jags: Steelers coming off a MNF win where the lost Mendenhall. Jags, historically good rush defense means all the pressure on the Steelers to throw the ball. Success comes for the Steelers when they run the ball to set up the pass, not vise versa.
Colts @ Texans
The Colts need to get their act together. 1-2 is a bad start, but worse then that, they have looked absolutely terrible on offense, which is unacceptable for this team. A bye week is always a good recipe to help get a team back on track. It also helps that Houston isn't a good team and their QB play has been awful. Both these teams have played run heavy teams, thus the inflation in the defensive rush statistics, but I think Addai can get rolling against the Texans here. I have to pay -125 for the Colts @ -3, but I am all over that.
Patriots @ 49ers
The Pats are also a team that has something to prove. They had their asses handed to them 2 weeks ago against the Dolphins. Now they are coming off a bye week to play an overinflated 49ers team. If the Pats lose here, I think it is clear that they are done, I don't think Belichick lets that happen. -3 for the Pats costs -120 @ my book.
Falcons @ Packers
Rodgers is doubtful, which has this game as a giant wildcard when it comes to the line. Coin flip with 2 rookie QBs starting. If Rodgers doesn't play, this is an instant under play for me. I think both coaches will be doing all they can to protect their QBs from huge mistakes. Conservative playcalling breeds lots of punts. Atlanta can't score touchdowns on the road, well at least they haven't yet. I think this will either be way under, or way over if the QBs turn the ball over and create short fields. I think it is more likely that they go way under.
Weak Leans
Titans @ Ravens: I don't know why I can't pull the trigger on the Titans here, I think they are primed for a poor game.
Chargers @ Dolphins: I lean toward the Chargers minus the points. What keeps me off them is that the Dolphins are comming off a bye week, and the Chargers are coming off a rivalry game against the Raiders, which they could have lost.
Cheifs @ Panthers: I liked the Cheifs at home getting a bunch of points against a division opponent, I don't like them on the road getting less than 10, especially with the QBs they have on that roster.
Redskins @ Eagles: The Skins come off a huge win against the Cowboys, and the Eagles come off a tough, primetime loss against the Bears. The toughest division in the NFL has me thinking always take the points if the spread is more than 3, but I could flip a coin on this game.
Bears @ Lions: I would play against the Lions until they prove they can cover. Watch, it will probably be this week.
Seahawks @ Giants: The Seahawks get their 2 top receivers back, while the Giants lose theirs. Give me the points, even though I hate betting on Seattle when they travel to the east coast.
Bucs @ Broncos: Coin flip for me, especially with that hook. I really can't see how this game will play out in my head. Are the Broncos and Cutler for real? We should learn a lot when they face a good Bucs defense.
Bills @ Cardinals: Remember last year how the Lions started off fast last year, then they went and lost to a bad Arizona team, and the betting public got killed? Sportsbook.com has 81% of the public on the Bills, I think the same thing happens here.
Bengals @ Cowboys: I cannot give an NFL team 16 points, I just can't do it. That is why you never saw me on New England last year with those huge spreads. I missed a bunch of wins early last year, but I saved myself a bunch of losses late last year.
Steelers @ Jags: Steelers coming off a MNF win where the lost Mendenhall. Jags, historically good rush defense means all the pressure on the Steelers to throw the ball. Success comes for the Steelers when they run the ball to set up the pass, not vise versa.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Thursday
What a great Thursday for sports, 3 baseball playoff games, and 3 college football games.
Oregon State @ Utah
Oregon State knocking off USC last week was the best thing that could have happened to Utah for a number of reasons.
1. The letdown factor. That should be negated a bit because this is also a prime time game on national TV against a ranked opponent, but you never know, OSU is a young team.
2. Utah definitely won't overlook OSU now. In fact it probably fired them up even more to beat the team that just knocked off the number 1 team in the nation.
3. If Utah blows out OSU it looks very good for them. They blow out the team that knocked off the number 1 team the week before. They really need to blow them out to make it look good for the voters if they want to try and make a BCS bowl.
I like Utah in this spot -11. This may sound weird, but I think OSU had an easier time on defense against USC than they will against Utah, mainly because USC doesn't run the spread offense. I firmly believe that the spread offense is the toughest offense in college football to defend against. Utah runs the spread offense very well. Also Utah defends the run very well giving up only 2 yards per carry. That looks better than it is because of some of the opponents they played, but they have also played Airforce, a run heavy team, and Michigan, a team that can run the ball. After watching the USC film, you can be sure that Utah worked on wrapping up the ball carrier in practice because USC couldn't wrap up Quizz. Finally OSU is different team at home than they are on the road. Corvales is a very difficult place to play, and the Beavers play MUCH better at home than they do on the road.
My main concern, Utah only had 5 days to prepare for this game, that is if you think they weren't preparing for this game the week before because they were playing Weber St. on Saturday.
Pitt @ South Florida
This is a tough breakdown for me. Pitt is an enigma. They remind me of Ohio St. a number of years ago when they would play up or down to their level of competition. They would beat the good teams by 3 points, but they would also only beat the bad teams by 3 points. Pitt does the same stinking thing. In addition, lets talk about what Pitt did on the road last year. Straight up the went 1-4, but against the spread they went 4-1 and they were the dog in every one of those games. All these factors make it tough for me to say that I would take South Florida -13.5.
Pitt only had 5 days to prepare for this game and they were put to the test 5 days ago @ Syracuse. This will be their second road game of the year and it comes 5 days after their first road game. Whoever did the scheduling for Pitt is an idiot. You set your team up for failure when you schedule like this. Now maybe Pitt wins and/or covers tonight, but I don't think that this type of schedule is a recipe for success. On offense Pitts' main star is LeSean McCoy, a stud running back who has struggled to get on track. The reason for this is teams are gearing up to stop him because Pitts' QB play has been poor. South Flordia is built to be able to do that, only giving up 2.1 yards per carry. I believe South Florida will put all of the pressure on the Pitt QB and plain and simple, I don't think Stull will have much success. The wildcard is Pitts' defense. They have experience and talent. If they can force turnovers, Pitt has a shot to keep this close. If they don't force turnovers, I don't think Pitt can keep this close. With no faith in the Pitt QB, I would much rather lay my money on South Florida.
Memphis @ UAB
Both teams are on short weeks as they both played on Saturday. The rushing stats for these two teams are humerous. Memphis rushes for 6.4 yards per carry while UAB rushes for 5.2. Memphis gives up 5.9 yards per carry on defense, while UAB gives up 5.0. So... it looks like both teams should be able to run on one another. Generally that is the first indication that I need to go look at the O/U because there should be a pretty good shot this game could go over. But now with the new clock rules, running teams keep the clock running longer and it burns more time than it used to.
Plain and simple, Memphis was a bowl team last year, and they have more talent. What has really hampered them on offense is their QB. They have great experience and talent in the receiver position, but the QBs haven't been as effiecient as Memphis would like. UAB has also been hurt by inefficent QB play. I lean toward Memphis -3 and the over, but they are not the strongest leans I have ever had.
So there you go, 3 favorites for Thursday. It has me a little concerned but I have done my research and that is what it says, so I am going with it.
Oregon State @ Utah
Oregon State knocking off USC last week was the best thing that could have happened to Utah for a number of reasons.
1. The letdown factor. That should be negated a bit because this is also a prime time game on national TV against a ranked opponent, but you never know, OSU is a young team.
2. Utah definitely won't overlook OSU now. In fact it probably fired them up even more to beat the team that just knocked off the number 1 team in the nation.
3. If Utah blows out OSU it looks very good for them. They blow out the team that knocked off the number 1 team the week before. They really need to blow them out to make it look good for the voters if they want to try and make a BCS bowl.
I like Utah in this spot -11. This may sound weird, but I think OSU had an easier time on defense against USC than they will against Utah, mainly because USC doesn't run the spread offense. I firmly believe that the spread offense is the toughest offense in college football to defend against. Utah runs the spread offense very well. Also Utah defends the run very well giving up only 2 yards per carry. That looks better than it is because of some of the opponents they played, but they have also played Airforce, a run heavy team, and Michigan, a team that can run the ball. After watching the USC film, you can be sure that Utah worked on wrapping up the ball carrier in practice because USC couldn't wrap up Quizz. Finally OSU is different team at home than they are on the road. Corvales is a very difficult place to play, and the Beavers play MUCH better at home than they do on the road.
My main concern, Utah only had 5 days to prepare for this game, that is if you think they weren't preparing for this game the week before because they were playing Weber St. on Saturday.
Pitt @ South Florida
This is a tough breakdown for me. Pitt is an enigma. They remind me of Ohio St. a number of years ago when they would play up or down to their level of competition. They would beat the good teams by 3 points, but they would also only beat the bad teams by 3 points. Pitt does the same stinking thing. In addition, lets talk about what Pitt did on the road last year. Straight up the went 1-4, but against the spread they went 4-1 and they were the dog in every one of those games. All these factors make it tough for me to say that I would take South Florida -13.5.
Pitt only had 5 days to prepare for this game and they were put to the test 5 days ago @ Syracuse. This will be their second road game of the year and it comes 5 days after their first road game. Whoever did the scheduling for Pitt is an idiot. You set your team up for failure when you schedule like this. Now maybe Pitt wins and/or covers tonight, but I don't think that this type of schedule is a recipe for success. On offense Pitts' main star is LeSean McCoy, a stud running back who has struggled to get on track. The reason for this is teams are gearing up to stop him because Pitts' QB play has been poor. South Flordia is built to be able to do that, only giving up 2.1 yards per carry. I believe South Florida will put all of the pressure on the Pitt QB and plain and simple, I don't think Stull will have much success. The wildcard is Pitts' defense. They have experience and talent. If they can force turnovers, Pitt has a shot to keep this close. If they don't force turnovers, I don't think Pitt can keep this close. With no faith in the Pitt QB, I would much rather lay my money on South Florida.
Memphis @ UAB
Both teams are on short weeks as they both played on Saturday. The rushing stats for these two teams are humerous. Memphis rushes for 6.4 yards per carry while UAB rushes for 5.2. Memphis gives up 5.9 yards per carry on defense, while UAB gives up 5.0. So... it looks like both teams should be able to run on one another. Generally that is the first indication that I need to go look at the O/U because there should be a pretty good shot this game could go over. But now with the new clock rules, running teams keep the clock running longer and it burns more time than it used to.
Plain and simple, Memphis was a bowl team last year, and they have more talent. What has really hampered them on offense is their QB. They have great experience and talent in the receiver position, but the QBs haven't been as effiecient as Memphis would like. UAB has also been hurt by inefficent QB play. I lean toward Memphis -3 and the over, but they are not the strongest leans I have ever had.
So there you go, 3 favorites for Thursday. It has me a little concerned but I have done my research and that is what it says, so I am going with it.
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