LA Tech @ Boise State

Lets get the basics out of the way, the weather will be fine, and neither team has a significant injury.

I have one concern when it comes to Boise State in this game, the letdown factor. They went to Oregon 11 days ago, and beat a ranked Pac 10 team in one of the toughest stadiums to visit. Boise is stronger in just about every area when compared La Tech, but sometimes that doesn't matter when the better team thinks they should be able to whoop a team just because they strap their helmets on.

Having said that there are 2 major reasons why I like Boise to cover the 24 points tonight

1. The home field advantage on the smurf turf.

Prior to this season, Boise has gone 38-1 straight up at home over the last 6 years. Against the spread, they are an extremely good 23-12, 66%. They defend their home turf as well as anyone in the country, and often times they lay waste to teams that make the trip to play them on their blue field.

2. The way these teams match up.

La Tech is terrible at defending the pass. They give up almost 350 yards per game through the air. Teams generally move the ball down the field quicker if they are passing the ball, thus giving them more time to put up points and cover higher spreads. Boise's QB Kellen Moore has been highly efficient this year completing 71% of his passes and throwing for 5 TDs to 1 INT. This is a clear case when La Tech's weakness matches up against Boise State's strength.

I just don't bet against Boise at home. I either roll with them, or don't play the game at all.