NFL

I think this weekend is a Contender or Pretender weekend for some teams. I am liking teams who have been good teams in the past years, but have been struggling to open the year.

Colts @ Texans

The Colts need to get their act together. 1-2 is a bad start, but worse then that, they have looked absolutely terrible on offense, which is unacceptable for this team. A bye week is always a good recipe to help get a team back on track. It also helps that Houston isn't a good team and their QB play has been awful. Both these teams have played run heavy teams, thus the inflation in the defensive rush statistics, but I think Addai can get rolling against the Texans here. I have to pay -125 for the Colts @ -3, but I am all over that.

Patriots @ 49ers

The Pats are also a team that has something to prove. They had their asses handed to them 2 weeks ago against the Dolphins. Now they are coming off a bye week to play an overinflated 49ers team. If the Pats lose here, I think it is clear that they are done, I don't think Belichick lets that happen. -3 for the Pats costs -120 @ my book.

Falcons @ Packers

Rodgers is doubtful, which has this game as a giant wildcard when it comes to the line. Coin flip with 2 rookie QBs starting. If Rodgers doesn't play, this is an instant under play for me. I think both coaches will be doing all they can to protect their QBs from huge mistakes. Conservative playcalling breeds lots of punts. Atlanta can't score touchdowns on the road, well at least they haven't yet. I think this will either be way under, or way over if the QBs turn the ball over and create short fields. I think it is more likely that they go way under.

Weak Leans

Titans @ Ravens: I don't know why I can't pull the trigger on the Titans here, I think they are primed for a poor game.

Chargers @ Dolphins: I lean toward the Chargers minus the points. What keeps me off them is that the Dolphins are comming off a bye week, and the Chargers are coming off a rivalry game against the Raiders, which they could have lost.

Cheifs @ Panthers: I liked the Cheifs at home getting a bunch of points against a division opponent, I don't like them on the road getting less than 10, especially with the QBs they have on that roster.

Redskins @ Eagles: The Skins come off a huge win against the Cowboys, and the Eagles come off a tough, primetime loss against the Bears. The toughest division in the NFL has me thinking always take the points if the spread is more than 3, but I could flip a coin on this game.

Bears @ Lions: I would play against the Lions until they prove they can cover. Watch, it will probably be this week.

Seahawks @ Giants: The Seahawks get their 2 top receivers back, while the Giants lose theirs. Give me the points, even though I hate betting on Seattle when they travel to the east coast.

Bucs @ Broncos: Coin flip for me, especially with that hook. I really can't see how this game will play out in my head. Are the Broncos and Cutler for real? We should learn a lot when they face a good Bucs defense.

Bills @ Cardinals: Remember last year how the Lions started off fast last year, then they went and lost to a bad Arizona team, and the betting public got killed? Sportsbook.com has 81% of the public on the Bills, I think the same thing happens here.

Bengals @ Cowboys: I cannot give an NFL team 16 points, I just can't do it. That is why you never saw me on New England last year with those huge spreads. I missed a bunch of wins early last year, but I saved myself a bunch of losses late last year.

Steelers @ Jags: Steelers coming off a MNF win where the lost Mendenhall. Jags, historically good rush defense means all the pressure on the Steelers to throw the ball. Success comes for the Steelers when they run the ball to set up the pass, not vise versa.