Troy @ FAU

This is a very interesting game with many factors that could dictate the outcome. First off, there are thunderstorms and showers all day, scheduled through game time. The wind is estimated at 10-15 mph, not brutal, but enough to effect the passing games somewhat. I would really like to see the field conditions and the wind before the game starts. Remember, FAU played Michigan State in a rain storm and they were totally ineffective. I want to see if the conditions will be similar to that game.

What makes this game so interesting is the way that these teams have played so far this season. Troy has looked much better than FAU, and they lost most of their skilled players. The fact that they return their entire offensive line makes up for some of that, but naturally we would expect a huge drop off. That hasn't really happened, they beat the teams they were supposed to and got beat by BCS teams they were supposed to lose to. FAU on the other hand has been confusing. They return their skill players, including Rusty Smith, from an offense last year that was very potent. The problem is that they have yet to get on track this season. 13 points against Middle Tennessee State is totally unacceptable. In addition, they way the lost that game may have been overwhelming, considering the way they have played so far this year. In a rain storm, I find it hard to believe that FAU will finally get the offense in rhythm.

There is a revenge factor for Troy in this game. Last year, FAU went to Troy as a 16 point underdog and walked away with the outright win. Troy lost their stud QB from last year, but his replacement this year has similar talents. He is a dual threat to both run and pass, and in a game where the passing game may be neutralized because of the weather, I think that is a huge advantage to Troy.

My book has Troy as a 3.5 point favorite, and I hate the hook here. This is why seeing the weather conditions is so important. If the conditions are a nightmare, which could lead to a low scoring game, that hook is very important. If anyone lives in the area, please let us know if I am making a bigger deal about the weather than needs to be made.

Check back before the game, I will make a pick, but I want to see if I can find out some more information.